Jimenez wins 18th as Rockies double-up Reds

Baseball Betting Lines

09/06/2010 - Denver, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Troy Tulowitzki hit the go-ahead home run and Ubaldo Jimenez finally picked up his long-awaited 18th win of the season as Colorado outlasted Cincinnati, 10-5, to begin a crucial four-game series at Coors Field.

Jimenez (18-6) became the Rockies' all-time single season wins leader after five prior aborted attempts. He struggled through six innings during which he yielded four runs on seven hits and six walks while striking out eight for the Rockies, who climbed to within four games of division-leading San Diego in the NL West and 4 1/2 games of NL Wild Card pace-setters Philadelphia.

Tulowitzki finished 2-for-5 with three RBI, while the red-hot Carlos Gonzalez went 3-for-5 with two RBI to extend his hitting streak to a career-best 14 games for Colorado, which won its major league-leading 30th day game.

Bill Bray (0-2) took the loss after surrendering three runs on two hits and a walk in 1 2/3 innings in relief for the Reds, who have dropped three of four and saw their lead in the NL Central trimmed to six games after St. Louis downed Milwaukee earlier in the day.

Cincinnati sent 10 men to the plate and manufactured the first four runs of the game in the third.

Drew Stubbs walked, advanced to third on a Paul Janish ground-rule double and scored on a Brandon Phillips groundout. Janish then scored on Chris Heisey's two-out bunt base hit to third.

Joey Votto followed with another ground-rule double in front of Jonny Gomes, who flared a single into right to chase home Heisey and Votto.

Colorado came right back in the bottom half to get the game tied with a four- spot of its own.

The rally started with a walk to Jimenez that was followed by Eric Young's double and a walk to Dexter Fowler that loaded the bases with one out.

Gonzalez followed with a double to right to deliver two runs and Tulowitzki then tripled to center to chase home two more runs to level the count. Todd Helton walked to spell the end of the day for Aaron Harang. Jordan Smith came in and got Melvin Mora to ground into an inning-ending double play.

Harang was charged with four runs on four hits and three walks over just 2 1/3 innings in his shortest start of the season.

The Reds wasted an opportunity to retake the lead in the fifth as they had runners at the corners with nobody out and did not score. Jimenez struck out Stubbs, got Janish to pop out and fanned pinch-hitter Yonder Alonso.

Bray opened the fifth on the hill for the visitors and served up a two-out solo shot to Tulowitzki that gave the Rockies their first lead at 5-4.

The visitors threatened again in the sixth as they loaded the bases with two outs before Jimenez got Ramon Hernandez to ground out with his 123rd and final pitch of the afternoon.

Colorado expanded its lead in the bottom of the inning with three runs.

Aroldis Chapman assumed the hill with runners at first and second and two outs and gave up an RBI single to Eric Young, Jr. Fowler legged out an infield hit that was fielded by a sprawling Janish at short, who threw from his back wildly past second base, allowing Chris Nelson to score to make it a 7-4 contest.

An infield hit by Gonzalez loaded the bases and a passed ball by catcher Ryan Hanigan, who had entered the game with Chapman as part of a double switch, scored Young to make it an 8-4 game.

The hosts tacked on a pair of runs in the seventh against Carlos Fisher on an RBI double by Miguel Olivo and a pinch-hit RBI single by Ryan Spilborghs.

The Reds got a run back in the eighth on a two-out, run-producing hit by Juan Francisco.

Game Notes

Gonzalez has 10 multi-hit games, including in five of his last six, during his hitting streak. He has an extra-base hit in 12 of those games and has driven in a run in 10 of them...Jimenez has a league-leading 11 wins during the day. He improved to 8-1 at home this season and to 3-0 in five career starts versus the Reds...Colorado has won seven straight home games over Cincinnati...Heisey has hit safely in seven of his last eight...Reds pitcher Edinson Volquez was scheduled to make his second start for low class-A Dayton Monday afternoon and is expected to rejoin the team later this week.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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